Correlation analysis of climate conditions on rice prices in semarang 2017-2023
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Abstract
Rice is a vital commodity in Indonesia whose price stability is highly sensitive to climate variability. Semarang City, as a coastal urban center prone to floods and extreme rainfall, plays a strategic role in rice production and distribution in Central Java. This research analyzes the correlation between climate variables and rice prices during the 2017–2023 period using Pearson, Spearman, cross-correlation, and autocorrelation methods. The results show that rice prices have weak to moderate correlations with climate factors, with temperature showing a stronger influence compared to rainfall, humidity, or wind speed. Although Pearson and Spearman tests mostly indicate weak correlations, several results are statistically significant, while cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that climate impacts on rice prices often appear indirectly with time lags. Furthermore, autocorrelation reveals that rice prices are characterized by short-term dependencies without clear seasonality, whereas climate parameters exhibit stronger cyclical patterns. These findings provide valuable insights for developing adaptive strategies and policies to strengthen food security in the face of climate change.
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